RODALE NEWS, EMMAUS, PA—Research published in the Annals of Internal Medicine brings doctors a step closer to predicting risk of type 2 diabetes using a simple question-and-answer system instead of blood tests. By answering about 10 questions and tallying up their score, people who take the test can get a relatively accurate assessment of their risk, and find out how urgent it is to undertake preventive measures.
THE DETAILS: Researchers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) looked at 14 years of data from a sample of 12,729 adults between the ages of 45 and 64 who participated in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. When all participants were first interviewed, none had been diagnosed with diabetes. For the ARIC study, each person was asked to provide basic information on whether his or her parents had diabetes, and his or her race, smoking history, alcohol consumption, height and weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, and pulse rate. The CDC researchers created a scoring system that assigned a point value to each of these risk factors. They found that, using only a simple set of questions, they were able to accurately identify patients who were at an increased risk for developing diabetes before they began showing symptoms.
WHAT IT MEANS: The incidence of type 2 diabetes has more than doubled in this country in the last 30 years, and the disease contributes to about 250,000 deaths in the U.S. per year. Many people with this form of diabetes, even those already developing complications, are not even aware they have it. A test such as the one validated in this study would allow doctors to pinpoint patients who are most at risk and get them started on a prevention program. “We’d like to move the calendar back a bit to a stage where there are no symptoms and no damage has been done yet, so we can more appropriately focus our efforts on preventing rather than simply treating the disease,” says Henry Kahn, MD, study coauthor.
What’s your risk? The main benefit of this new scoring system is that it’s relatively simple to use. It’s so easy, in fact, that Dr. Kahn says with a little math you can take it at home, so long as you know whether you have high blood pressure and are able to measure your waist circumference and pulse rate. It’s important to note that researchers have not confirmed the accuracy of the scoring system in predicting diabetes risk for people who are younger than 45, older then 64, or from a racial group other than white or black. The test also only applies to residents of the U.S. In other areas, where diets and genes are very different, this test might not be as effective.
Are you at risk for type 2 diabetes? To find out, answer these 10 questions:
1. Do you have a diabetic mother? 13 points if yes
2. Do you have a diabetic father? 8 points if yes
3. Do you have hypertension? 11 points if yes
4. Are you African American? 6 points if yes
5. Are you age 55 to 64? 5 points if yes
6. Were you ever a smoker? 4 points if yes
7. What is your waist circumference in inches?
If you’re male:
Less than 35 inches = 0 points
35 to less than 37 inches = 10 points
37 to less than 39 inches = 20 points
39 to less than 42 inches = 26 points
42 inches or greater = 35 points
If you’re female:
Less than 32 inches = 0 points
32 to less than 35 inches =10 points
35 to less than 38 inches = 20 points
38 to less than 41 inches = 26 points
41 inches or greater = 35 points
8. What is your height in inches?
If you’re male:
Less than 67 inches = 8 points
67 to less than 69 inches = 6 points
60 to less than 70 inches = 3 points
70 inches or more = 0 points
If you’re female:
Less than 62 inches = 8 points
62 to less than 63 inches = 6 points
63 to less than 64½ inches = 3 points
64½ inches or more = 0 points
9. What is your resting pulse rate in beats per minute? (To find out, count the beats while sitting quietly for 60 seconds.)
If you’re male:
68 bpm or less = 0 points
Greater than 68 bpm = 5 points
If you’re female:
73 bpm or less = 0 points
Greater than 73 bpm = 5 points
10. What is your weight in pounds?
If you’re male:
Less than 190 = 0 points
Greater than 190 = 5 points
If you’re female:
Less than 160 = 0 points
Greater than 160 = 5 points
Add up your total score:
20 points or less: You have about a 5 percent risk of acquiring type 2 diabetes in the next 10 years.
21–32 points: You have about a 9 percent risk of acquiring type 2 diabetes in the next 10 years.
33–42 points: you have about a 16 percent risk of acquiring type 2 diabetes in the next 10 years.
43–54 points: You have about a 25 percent risk of acquiring type 2 diabetes in the next 10 years.
Greater than 55 points: You have about a 33 percent risk of acquiring type 2 diabetes in the next 10 years.
You can also check your risk by taking the American Diabetes Association’s Diabetes Risk Calculator.