RODALE NEWS, EMMAUS, PA—Climate talks were suspended Wednesday during the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen, Denmark. The drama unfolded as the alliance of developing countries known as G77, plus China, were divided between those who demand a new climate protocol and those who want to continue with the existing Kyoto protocol. G77 is a group of more than 100 countries that typically negotiate alongside China as a single block. The large fracture resulted in an official suspension of climate talks when members of nations particularly vulnerable to climate change stood up and made a proposal for a legally binding agreement stronger than Kyoto. However, China, India, and other richer developing countries in the alliance rejected the idea, saying it would damage their economic development. [Update: Reports out of Copenhagen indicate that the suspended discussions have resumed, focusing on topics other than creating a legally-binding agreement by the end of the conference.]
THE DETAILS: Tuvalu, a Pacific island state whose very existence is threatened by rising ocean levels, proposed a stronger climate protocol that would force developing countries to make deep emissions cuts, and subsequently requested that the main climate negotiations be suspended so that an agreement could be resolved behind the scenes. At press time, the negotiations had not been resumed, and some observers worry that the impasse makes it unlikely that the conference will produce meaningful results. Tuvalu and its supporters are pressing for a legally binding treaty that aims at preventing global climate from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius higher, and at keeping greenhouse-gas concentrations stabilized at 350 parts per million (ppm)—not 450 ppm, which is what developed countries and major developing nations are calling for.
WHAT IT MEANS: Hopefully, the suspended negotiations will resume. But it's possible this will be more than a simple delay. "We could have a situation where no real talks are going on at Copenhagen," says Rolf Skar, spokesman for the international environmental organization Greenpeace. By the time countries ratify a UN process coming out of the Mexico conference, it will likely be after the Kyoto treaty expires in 2012—a loss of precious time, Skar says. "Science is increasingly clear that it's not just about getting to 80 percent lower emissions based on 1990 levels by 2050. Short-term is even more important," he says. However, he adds that Greenpeace supports the climate goals called for by Tuvalu. Skar urges concerned citizens to contact their representatives and the Obama administration, and press for a meaningful agreement sooner rather than later.
The main climate negotiations will hopefully resume soon, and other aspects of the conference are likely to continue. Here are some of the important issues to keep an eye on:
• A new international climate treaty. With the major negotiation suspended, there's no ignoring the ideological divide between small nations like Tuvalu, which feel the direct threat of global climate change and want drastic action taken, and larger, richer nations who worry that a too-stringent treaty will inhibit economic growth. World leaders announced last month that they wouldn't put a legally binding agreement together by the end of the Copenhagen climate-change conference. Now the prospects for meaningful results are even lower.
• The cost of fixing things. One of the main issues being addressed during the negotiations is, "Where are we going to get the money to deal with climate change in an effective way?"
According to the International Energy Agency, we need about $500 billion a year for the next 20 years. While President Barack Obama is expected to lay out at the end of next week how much the United States is willing to pay, many experts say the $2 billion likely to be offered by each of the developed nations won't put a dent in what needs to be done. One possible money-generating mechanism leaders may look at is the Tobin tax, a sales taxes on currency trades across borders that was first developed, and since tweaked, by James Tobin, PhD, a Nobel-laureate economist. It's estimated that the tax would raise an estimated $100 to $300 billion a year while revitalizing domestic economies.
• Farming as a climate stabilizer. While negotiations at the conference are limited to political leaders, the United Nations gave many nonprofit organizations observer status. Such groups can operate exhibit booths and/or hold side events or press conferences in hopes of getting their messages across to conference attendees. One group of interest is the International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements, or IFOAM. The group is focusing on high-carbon-sequestering, low-emission, food-secure agriculture. This includes organic agriculture because organic farming practices trap carbon in soil, increase food security for farmers, and don't require the use of high-input pesticides and fertilizers that create a lot of greenhouse gases. UN negotiations could talk about ways to pay farmers to sequester carbon through creating and maintaining forests and using organic farming practices.
IFOAM is holding an event on December 17 featuring Rodale Institute Chief Executive Officer Tim LaSalle as the keynote speaker. LaSalle will focus on organic-farming research from the Institute and from around the world that shows organic farming methods sequester significant amounts of carbon dioxide, increase crop yields in developing countries, improve soil biology, and can be used as a powerful tool to stabilize the climate. And talk about good timing: LaSalle will be presenting the same day Obama will be in town.
• Protecting forests. During negotiations, we'll hear a lot about setting emission targets (which are usually far too modest and need to be aggressively lowered from 390 parts per million of CO2 in our atmosphere to 350 ppm or below, many expert climate scientists say). But what you likely aren't hearing are the negotiations concerning The United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries, or put more simply, REDD. Forests provide incredible ecoservices: They give us the oxygen we need to breathe, and absorb carbon dioxide, keeping excess CO2 out of the atmosphere where it leads to rapid global warming. Forests are home to diverse species that keep pests in check, and they filter and clean our water. An agreement to preserve forests, to pay people to reforest, and to take care of healthy forests is a critical and needs funding.
• High-profile protests. If one thing is clear in Copenhagen, it's that people want action on climate change. Thousands of demonstrators demanding a meaningful agreement to combat climate change are flooding Copenhagen, but one group is gaining a lot of press coverage lately. A coalition of about 15,000 activists plans to stage a peaceful protest by riding bicycles into the UN convention area. It's not clear how this will happen, though, since the staged event has been well publicized and security knows about it in advance.